Arms Sale To Taiwan

The Sino-US relationship has developed rapidly since the affirmation of the One China Policy in 1972. With the huge bilateral trade and massive implications of shifts in international power balance, this relationship is of overbearing complexity and importance.

With typical precision of diction, the Xinhua response to the confirmation of the $6 billion arms sale from the US to Taiwan detailed China's anger while also adhering to its implicit view of itself in the world.

With each posture and move, the US and China push their relationship in new directions. Whatever the intended message here, the result will become just another step in a complicated dance. As for the mid-to-long-range implications of this for Sino-American relations, no single factor will outweigh all others. Both parties have the ability to construct policy and message based on both slights and moments of cooperation. This means that China and the US can make use of issues ranging from the Dalai Lama to Internet Sensorship or industry specific tariffs to justify a wide range of actions.

In the end, moderate response is most likely to all but the most extreme events, and despite the sharp diction of the Jinhua article, this arms sale is not one of those extreme events.

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
Dwight D. Eisenhower

A Return to Thoughtful Diplomacy

The first nine months of Barack Obama's presidency have involved a slew of much needed visits to countries all across the world. Fulfilling his promises to reengage any country willing to come to the table, Barack Obama has made great strides forward in promoting the interests of the United States abroad. The current changes in Iran's behavior are a paragon of how well his strategies will come to fruition over time.

His diplomatic poise, which has drawn criticism from the right for superficial reasons, and been effectually ignored by democrats, is beginning to produce tangible results. Despite moments of uncertainty, Iran agreed to a draft deal to send most of its enriched uranium to Russia for re enrichment. The uranium would then be shipped to France to be turned into plates for use in the research reactor at Tehran University. This would strip Iran of the ability to make a nuclear weapon while at the same time allowing them validation in their claims of pursuing nuclear power as a means for self-reliance.

Should this deal go through, President Obama will have orchestrated a finely crafted diplomatic victory. Furthermore, regional tensions would be slackened at a time when "the moment may be at hand" in the Middle East peace process. With the recent poll numbers indicating that because of Barack Obama, the United states is now the most admired country in the world, it seems that the stage is set for real progress.

Finally, the type of diplomacy in which the current American Administration has engaged has been one of calculation, compromise, and strategic positioning. The brilliance of skipping Berlin in May only to dine out in Paris in June is a perfect example of this.

“Life is a constant oscillation between the sharp horns of dilemmas.”
H.L. Mencken

Sino-US Relations

The relationship between China and the United States is rich and of vital importance to the world. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton puts it quite aptly:

We are two of the world’s three largest economies, two of the world’s largest populations, two of the world’s largest militaries, the world’s largest consumers of energy and producers of carbon emissions. For these reasons and so many more, our respective priorities and policies have a global impact, and therefore we have a responsibility to ourselves and others to work as effectively as we can to meet the threats and seize the opportunities of the 21st century

-Hilary Clinton

There are several interesting facts to consider about recent Sino-US relations. In no particular order: The US was the 240th confirmed participant to the World EXPO in Shanghai in 2010, though its pavilion is slated to be one of the larger such pavilions. What this has meant for China is a delicate dance of promoting an event that I personally heard government officials announce as significantly bigger and more important to the country than the Olympic games in Beijing, while at the same time deftly ignoring American reticence to fully participate.

Also, the recent trade disputes between the current administration in the US and Chinese tire manufacturing is worrisome. As the NYT puts it "An all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies would wreak havoc on the global economy just as it is struggling to come back." While it seems clear from both Hilary Clinton and the head of China's Congress, Wu Bangguo's words that this current trade dispute will not spin out of control, this issue will need remediation at the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh.

Thirdly, global challenges like non-proliferation, global climate change, and pandemic threats all require delicate and long-term conversation between both nations. Iran is perched at the edge of having nuclear capabilities, the Kyoto protocol expires in 2012, and the H1N1 virus is on the move.

It will be up to Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama to ensure that all of the many competing forces in the Sino-US relationship are balanced. With their combined political acumen, there is a substantial enough amount of skill and intelligence that this is surely possible.

Effectiveness of UN Sanctions

From the inner quirks and hallway politics of the Security Council to the extensive and bureaucratic machinations involved in Ecosoc and NGOs, the UN as a whole is an intricate web of aspirations, optimistic endeavors, reluctant abdications, and abject failures. The stated goals of the United Nations are above all an ideal.

It is both admirable and desirable for the UN to seek to accomplish its goal of perpetuating international peace and security. However, the founders knew from the onset that every part of the UN would have to be a compromise between the Wilsonian ideals associated with the League of Nations and the emotionless calculations of realism.

Today's UN is no different. Take the recent sanction against North Korea this June following the DPRK's missile launches. Though enforcement seems feasible, there has been little success in stopping North Korean weapons exportation. The recent seizure of 10 containers of an arms shipment is a good sign.

That the seizure occurred several weeks ago and did not cause a flare-up in the rhetoric of the DPRK is also a good sign. There are several aspects of the seizure, however, that bear consideration:

First, the threat of war from North Korea should an American ship intercept a ship bound to or from North Korea under the new sanction limits American actions. Because of this, the UN resolution, though binding, is without much of its power. Second, the fact that the arms were headed for Iran, another international pariah, speaks to the effectiveness of UN sanctions.

Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.
-John F. Kennedy